Driving to my grandparents house today in rural Wisconsin and just had some time to think through some of my main predictions for crypto and the world more generally for 2025. I think we’re in for the most exciting year in human history.
First, I want to start out by saying something that might be controversial in the circles I’m running in for crypto: the most important story of the year will be AGI. I’ll talk about how this circles back to crypto.
I think we’re going to get AGI in 2025, based on current scaling trajectories, if we don’t already have it. The current o3 model is very close on most markers of human intelligence. It’s not released yet, but it’s going to be a big deal.
This is how the intelligence curve is scaling (cost not pictured):
These models are the most important inventions in human history. In fact, we are likely entering the post-human era, which is going to mean extremely meaningful changes for society at large. It’s just a matter of time before these models are extremely cost-effective and better than us at almost every task.
Crypto and Capital Markets
Crypto markets move with liquidity. It has worked this way historically, in 2017 with retail interest, in 2021 with institutional interest, and in 2025 we will have a massive liquidity injection due to two factors:
Real government participation in markets, driven by the new admin
Deflationary effects from AI starting to emerge that push capital to risk assets and lowering rates, we’re already starting to see the beginning of this
We’re going higherrrrrrr basically. You don’t have to believe me, let’s just watch it play out. My price targets for BTC and memes are so extremely high that it would be embarrassing to put them in a post.
What now?
As a founder and engineer, I have eyes on where I can make the most impact, almost at all times. I think the most impact right now is to be an AI researcher at one of the big labs. Unfortunately, I think most of us are too late to really be there and do that. That ball is already rolling and can’t be stopped. I definitely wouldn’t be able to do that.
What interests me most right now is what happens to humanity in a post-AGI world. How we find meaning. What happens to the structure of our society. Just because we have technology smarter than us, doesn’t mean human problems go away. In fact, I think we’ve been living in a post-abundance society for a while, and the human problems have stuck around or even gotten worse.
Human organization is something that truly interests me. I’ve been writing and thinking about token-backed communities (asset-backed religions) for years. Seems like a worthwhile thing to keep experimenting and shipping and see where this idea takes me. Plus, if we’re inventing robots smarter than all of us, I might as well be making jokes on the internet with my friends while wearing underwear on my head. Worthwhile. I think you should too.
Other Predictions
The AI x Crypto thing is mostly a thin narrative to spin the AI race, the true capital injection will be based on liquidity coming from lowering rates and government interest
There will be several more high-profile crypto grifts, and at least one black-swan event (maybe not in 2025 but in the next couple of years)
We will see government intervention in the major labs, they might even be nationalized
Everyone building a GPT wrapper will have an identity crisis
The people who will win are the folks who lean into our humanity. Be kind. Do cool things. Have integrity.