Never as Good as it Seems, Never as Bad as it Seems

Brian Armstrong has this saying, “It’s never as good as it seems, and never as bad as it seems.“ This is especially true in crypto, but applies across the startup landscape.

One thing I really appreciate about Brian is that he’s one of the most level-headed founders I’ve ever met, and has steered ship through some incredible ups, and incredible downs. This trait, more than any aspect of the business, is what I think made Coinbase successful. If you can’t stomach the downs, you can’t stomach the ups too.

This comes up in an asset class where the typical trough to the high is -85% down in price. Running a company, who’s revenue depends on that price, is, intense, and stressful, especially at scale.

I think sometimes when people meet Brian, they think he’s kind of this brand of less social engineer. The reality is that he’s a thoughtful leader who can consistently lead with confidence, regardless of where the market is, and this has been incredibly important as Coinbase has grown.

At Coinbase the engagement surveys used to fluctuate based on the price of crypto. I think this is similar in startups, except it’s the engagement of the founders which fluctuates based on how the company is doing. It’s important to remember though that no matter how things are going, it’s never as good as it seems and never as bad as it seems. As a founder the problems can feel so immediate and insurmountable, but you can get around them and still win.

If Brian can handle -85% Q/Q revenue decline, you can handle that customer churning, hard GTM etc.

The emotional game of startups is oftentimes the hardest thing to overcome, and the best founders handle it incredibly professionally and with confidence.